In September of 2007, I took on the task of attempting to draw statistical comparisons between crappy NFL teams and the level of crime in their respective cities. While my prediction that the Detroit Lions would have the worst record was incorrect, my dark horse choice of Miami was dead on the money.

Therefore, it’s necessary to alter my algorithm a little and introduce the x-factor. Let’s have the crime data account for 80% of the prediction, and x-factor (offseason moves, coaching, injuries,schedule etc) account for the other 20%.

Of the 25 Most Dangerous Cities In America, 10 of them serve as the home of an NFL franchise. Of these 10 teams, only the Cleveland Browns had a winning record last season.

1. Detroit, Mich.
2. St. Louis, Mo.
4. Oakland, Calif.
10. Cleveland, Ohio
12. Baltimore, Md.
16. Cincinnati, Ohio
18. Kansas City, Mo.
21. Philadelphia, Penn.
22. Atlanta, Ga.
24. Buffalo, N.Y.

- When you couple both the crime level, and the incompetence of their front office, the Oakland Raiders are the runaway choice to have the worst 2008 season. It would defy logic for this team to even sniff the .500 mark this season…. HOW-EVA (Stephen A. Smith voice) …. The Raiders have an easy schedule this year… so I don’t think they can snatch the worst record crown.

I’m going with the sleeper pick of The Baltimore Ravens to stink up the NFL this year…. all the pieces are in place for a Exxon sized tank job. Kyle Boller is gone, which leaves rookie Joe Flacco (and possibly Troy Smith) to lead the team in one of the most competitive divisions in football. Ed Reed is hurt, and I get the feeling that the defense is going to need much more help than the offense can provide.

And for my sleeper pick on the other end of the spectrum.

The San Francisco 49ers will sneak up and finish 10-6 this year..and make the playoffs.

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UPDATE: The 2008 NFL season is now halfway over, and the Detroit Lions have a dismal 0-9 record. The Rams, Raiders, Browns, Bengals, and Chiefs all have losing records also.

Philadelphia, Baltimore, Atlanta and Buffalo have winning records as of now, however… the Buffalo Bill are riding a losing streak and seem to be rapidly heading toward a losing schedule this year. Buffalo and Philly are both only 1 game over .500, so their seasons may be too close to call.

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