One of the biggest misconceptions hovering around the upcoming Floyd Mayweather vs. Juan Manuel Marquez fight is the notion that Mayweather handpicked an easy opponent to collect a check. You can ask any *real* boxing fan around about Marquez and they should have him in their top 5 pound for pound. If I had to pick a winner between the two, I’d choose Mayweather easily, but when you take the following factors into account, the outcome may not be so cut-and-dry anymore.

1. Floyd is coming off a 2 year layoff – I don’t care who you are, if you step out of the ring for 2 years theres going to be a little bit of rust when you come back. Another thing to consider is that boxers can literally turn old in ONE fight (see Roy Jones Jr.), it’s always a dangerous decision to take long layoffs when you’re over the age of 30. Floyd’s saving grace *may* be that he walks around in shape at all times, he doesn’t need to drop 20-30 pounds for a comeback fight.

2. Floyd is nursing a rib injury - There’s a conspiracy theory floating around that Mayweather created this rib injury out of thin air because ticket sales for the bout was low, but it almost exclusively comes from fanatical Floyd haters. The type of rib cartilage injury could be a huge hindrance if it’s not fully healed by the time fight night is here on September 19th. Floyd is not an offensive powerhouse, he relies on quickness, reflexes, and defensive counter punching to win fights. This injury could potentially slow him down just enough to make the bout closer than we all expected.

3. Roger Mayweather’s troubles with the law - In case you hadn’t heard, Floyd’s uncle/trainer Roger Mayweather was arrested yesterday for laying the smack down on a woman. This issue wouldn’t be a problem in normal circumstances, but it does serve as another dark cloud hovering over this fight. Will it serve as a distraction in camp?

4. Is Floyd overlooking Marquez for Pacquiao? - I’ve mentioned this before, but if you pay attention to all the pre-fight press on this bout you’ll notice Floyd spends more time fielding questions about Manny Pacquiao than he does on his current opponent. None of us know what Floyd does behind closed doors to prepare for Marquez, but if outward actions are any indication he clearly isn’t worried about Marquez in the slightest.

Like I said at the beginning of this post, in an ideal situation Floyd would win this fight with his eyes closed (he’s just that good), but this situation is getting further and further away from ideal. At this point my prediction for the winner still hasn’t changed, but I will say I would NOT be surprised if we all witnessed a huge upset next month.

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